John Caldwell's take on the Reform-Quake
Itโs been a week since the election results, so itโs probably time to talk about the elephant in the room. ๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ต ๐ซ๐ถ๐ด๐ต ๐๐ข๐ฑ๐ฑ๐ฆ๐ฏ๐ฆ๐ฅ?
ReformUK did what they were threatening to do and they took over the election. Going into the election we knew it was going to be a challenge, but even then, it was surprising just how well they did.
To be in the room when people realised what was happening was, to be honest, both intriguing and scary at the same time. That feeling wasnโt just coming from the non-Reform candidates either. The mood in the room palpably changed within the first 10 minutes or so.
๐๐จ ๐ฐ๐ก๐ฒ ๐๐ข๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐ช๐ฎ๐๐ค๐/๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ช๐ฎ๐จ๐ข๐ฌ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ง๐๐ฆ๐ข ๐ก๐ข๐ญ, ๐๐ง๐ ๐ก๐ข๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ซ๐?
Political analysts and podcasters have spent countless hours in the last week dissecting the results, proposing highly analytical, data-driven theories. However, the explanation, in my view, is far simpler.
I stood for election because I was ๐
๐๐ ๐๐ฉ.
It was the core message of my leaflets, my videos, and my door-to-door conversations.
This sentiment, I discovered, ๐ธ๐ข๐ด ๐ฏ๐ฐ๐ต ๐ถ๐ฏ๐ช๐ฒ๐ถ๐ฆ ๐ต๐ฐ ๐ฎ๐ฆ.
We met scores of people who felt isolated and ignored by successive governments, and local elected members.
Add to this the disillusioned former supporters of the Conservatives (particularly those who rallied behind Boris Johnson) and Labour (betrayed over WASPI pensions and fuel allowances), who found in Reform a promise of "REAL change," regardless of its actual feasibility. This was the overwhelming feedback we received on the doorsteps: ๐ฉ๐๐จ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ ๐ฐ๐๐ซ๐ ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ญ๐๐ซ๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐๐ ๐ฎ๐ฉ.
The traditional two-party system had lost the trust of many, and for some, the Liberal Democrats and Greens were perceived as too far to the left. This created a political vacuum, a space that Reform eagerly filled.
๐๐จ๐ฐ๐๐ฏ๐๐ซ, ๐ข๐ญ ๐ ๐จ๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ฉ๐๐ซ ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ญโฆ
Reform have been labelled "Far-Right," "Racist," and "Fascistโ.
Yes, there are undoubtedly members and supporters who embrace these labels, however, to dismiss all the supporters of the party as fitting this mould is, ๐ ๐ฃ๐ฆ๐ญ๐ช๐ฆ๐ท๐ฆ, a mistake.
There ๐๐ซ๐ people who voted for Reform because they wear the Nationalist badge with honour and see themselves reflected in what the party promotes and others who donโt see past the thinly veiled hate, hidden behind silky words, and buried beneath flowery language in their โContract With The Peopleโ.
However, a significant portion of Reforms support came from those casting a ๐ฉ๐ซ๐จ๐ญ๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฏ๐จ๐ญ๐. These voters, regardless of their personal ideologies, sought to send a clear message to Westminster: the people were fed up and demanded to be heard.
๐๐๐ฒ๐จ๐ง๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ฅ๐ฌ
During the campaign, I did come across people who cited concerns about small boats and irregular migration as their primary motivation for voting Reform.
Yet, when discussing other issues, their views often aligned with the Liberal Democrats and Greens, particularly on climate change, net-zero initiatives, river pollution, and local matters like SEND and Transport infrastructure.
๐๐ฐ๐ต๐ข๐ฃ๐ญ๐บ, ๐ง๐ฆ๐ธ ๐ค๐ฐ๐ถ๐ญ๐ฅ ๐ข๐ณ๐ต๐ช๐ค๐ถ๐ญ๐ข๐ต๐ฆ ๐๐ฆ๐ง๐ฐ๐ณ๐ฎ๐ด ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ค๐ข๐ญ ๐ฑ๐ฐ๐ญ๐ช๐ค๐ช๐ฆ๐ด.
But this lack of policy knowledge didn't deter them.
People felt abandoned and Reform, with its loud pronouncements and ever-present presence on television, and newsfeeds, attracted a lot of attention.
They used Royal Mail to put addressed letters through your door, reaching voters using resources local parties just donโt have.
They were everywhere, reaching out to voters who felt deserted by the traditional parties.
๐๐ก๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ง๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ ๐
๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ: ๐ ๐๐๐ซ๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐จ๐ ๐๐ข๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ๐ฒ
The election results underscored the power of voter turnout. In Mitton, a 5-6% increase in predicted turnout proved to be the decisive margin that propelled Reform past the Conservatives.
However, it's essential to recognize that the majority of Reform voters are not Racists. They are not Fascists. Some of them would not even call themselves Patriots or even Nationalists โ and they certainly would not describe themselves as the Far-Right.
๐๐ก๐๐ฒ ๐๐ซ๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ซ๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ฒ ๐ฐ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ก๐๐๐ซ๐ โ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ฒ ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ง๐๐ ๐ฎ๐ฉ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฏ๐จ๐ญ๐ to make sure they were!
๐ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฆ๐ข๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ก๐๐ง๐ ๐: ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ข๐ฅ๐๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐ซ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ญ
The old adage, "you only see a politician during an election," rings painfully true for many. In the latter weeks of the campaign, I was saying to people "We are giving people a last chance to ask questions or point the finger," and although it was meant as an ice-breaker to start a discussion, I also realised that for some people this would normally be their only interaction with a politician until the next election cycle.
๐๐ง๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ญโ๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ซ๐ข๐ ๐ก๐ญ.
That needs to change.
I made a commitment to everyone I met on the doorsteps.
I said ๐๐ฅ๐๐๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ I would be out knocking doors on a regular basis, I would be accessible, I would be visible. I will help where I can, and if I couldnโt I would find someone who could.
๐๐ง๐ ๐ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ญ.
So, if you see me on your street, in town, when Iโm walking the dog โ whatever, whenever โ please feel free to stop me and tell me what is going on. Tell me what you need help with. Tell me what you think we need to be doing and fighting for.
๐ ๐ฐ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐ฅ๐ข๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐ง โ ๐ฒ๐จ๐ฎ ๐ฐ๐จ๐งโ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐ข๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ซ๐๐.